Arab-Americans shift their loyalty to Kerry
Bryan Bender The Boston Globe
Friday, August 13, 2004
Polls show civil liberties as a big issue
WASHINGTON Arab-American voters, disenchanted with President George W.
Bush’s policies on
the Middle East and what they consider assaults on their civil liberties
around the
country, are abandoning the Republican president and throwing their
support behind his
Democratic opponent, John Kerry, according to new polls and community
leaders.
The 3.5 million Arab-Americans constitute a voting bloc that perhaps more
than any other
has shifted its party loyalties since the 2000 election, when nearly half
voted for Bush.
Polls conducted this summer showed Kerry leading Bush by a margin of more
than 2 to 1.
Their votes could prove crucial this year, analysts say, especially in
battleground states
like Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, each with more than 100,000
voters of Arab
descent. But their support for Kerry appears soft, some say, in part
because he and Bush
have taken strong pro-Israel positions.
As a result, the ultimate allegiance of Arab-Americans remains volatile,
with a
significant number considering the independent candidacy of Ralph Nader, a
Lebanese-American who has called for the United States to pull out of Iraq
and for the
repeal of legislation, known as the Patriot Act, that many Arab-Americans
say has been
used to infringe on their rights.
Kerry has tried to limit Bush’s inroads with Jewish voters by backing
Israel over the
Palestinian Authority, and this week said he would have still voted for
the war in Iraq
even if he had known at the time that Saddam Hussein had no unconventional
weapons or ties
to the Sept. 11 attacks.
And while Kerry supports amending the counterterrorism measure widely
condemned by
Arab-Americans, he was among a majority of lawmakers who voted for it in
October 2001.
‘‘It’s a dilemma,’’ said Taleb Salhab, coordinator of the Florida Arab
American Leadership
Council. ‘‘We have worked diligently with the Kerry cam paign to get them
to address some
of these concerns, but the Nader factor remains an issue in our
community.’’
Peter Camejo, Nader’s running-mate, said in an interview, ‘‘The Muslim
Arab community is
very anti-Bush and is going to Kerry, but it’s also one area where Nader
is getting a lot
of support.’’
There are an estimated 270,000 Arab-Americans in Florida, 400,000 in
Michigan, 160,000 in
Ohio, and 150,000 in Pennsylvania. About 70 percent of Arab-Americans are
Christians.
A high voter turnout is expected this fall. ‘‘People are really, really
fired up about
this election,’’ said Salhab, a Kerry supporter. ‘‘I think Florida will
play a critical
role as it did the last time. I am confident our community will turn out
to vote in record
numbers.’’
So far Kerry is clearly benefiting from the growing anti-Bush feelings
over the Iraq war,
a growing chasm between the West and the Islamic world, and what
Arab-American leaders see
as ethnic profiling and the White House's disregard for their concerns.
In community centers, mosques and churches the disdain for Bush is
evident.
‘‘It seems that the only time this administration wants to meet with us is
for photo
opportunities, not to hear our concerns about policies here at home and
abroad,’’ Mahdi
Bray, executive director of the Muslim American Society’s Freedom
Foundation, wrote
recently on the group's Web site.
Bush’s approval rating among Arab-Americans is 24 percent, according to
Zogby
International, an independent polling firm.
Even though only one-third were registered Republicans in 2000, 47 percent
voted for Bush.
Yet, according to several recent polls in states with large numbers of
Arab-Americans,
they are leaning much more toward Kerry.
A recent Zogby poll showed that 54 percent supported Kerry, while 24
percent favored Bush.
Of the rest, 21 percent said they were undecided or backing Nader.
The July poll in Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania found that 30
percent who
described themselves as Republicans agreed that it was ‘‘time for someone
new.’’
‘‘It’s a complete 180-degree turn,’’ John Zogby, the pollster, said of the
apparent
reversal from four years ago.
Still, some Arab-American leaders say the Democratic Party could be
squandering a chance
for even more support from Americans of Arab descent and new immigrants
from the Middle
East. They say stronger stances against certain aspects of the
counterterrorism
legislation, like ‘‘sneak and peek’’ searches without notice, would sway
more of the
voters.
Another area of significant contention is Kerry’s stance on the Middle
East peace process.
Kerry, in a recent policy paper, struck a harder position in support for
Israel’s
construction of security fencing.
‘‘Our community has more confidence in Kerry, but half of them are not
confident with
either,’’ said James Zogby, president of the Arab-American In stitute, who
is a Kerry
supporter and the pollster’s brother.
At an event held during the Democratic Convention last month in Boston,
James Zogby warned
that Kerry’s appeals to Jewish voters could cost him more Arab-American
votes in large
swing states than he might gain. He predicted that while Bush might gain
more Jewish votes
than he did in 2000 because of his pro-Israel policies and muscular stance
against Muslim
terrorists, at the most he would get 30 percent.
Kerry, like Democratic presidential nominees in the past, will still get
an overwhelming
majority. So while Kerry may win some additional Jewish votes by being
staunchly
pro-Israel, those gains may be undercut by disapproval of Arab-Americans
in Michigan,
Florida or other states, Zogby warned.
A sense that Arab-Americans are backing Kerry because they oppose Bush,
not because they
are enamored of Kerry, gives Nader some hope.
‘‘If they shift from Bush to Kerry, all they are getting is a new suit of
clothes,’’ Nader
said in a recent interview. ‘‘They have the same policies on Iraq,
Israel-Palestine, and
the Patriot Act, which are near and dear to them.
‘‘The only other thing they are getting different is a new attorney
general. But there is
no guarantee. Profiling Arab-Americans and Muslim Americans and using
secret evidence in
immigration cases — they did a lot of those things before 9/11.’’
But Marwan Burgan, a Democratic delegate from Virginia, said that ending
John Ashcroft’s
tenure as attorney general would be a significant change to
Arab-Americans.
‘‘I can’t get everything I want, but people have to be realistic in
politics,’’ Burgan
said. ‘‘There is great difference between Kerry and Bush policies. Kerry
wants to
dismantle the Ashcroft Justice Department.’’
The Boston Globe
Copyright © 2004 The International Herald Tribune | www.iht.com
|
