Bush, Kerry Remain Tied After Veterans' Attack Ads (Update1)
Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- President George W. Bush and John Kerry remain
deadlocked in the
race for the U.S. presidency, five national polls show, indicating that an
anti-Kerry
advertising campaign by a Vietnam veterans group has failed to hurt him or
help the
president.
Kerry, a four-term U.S. senator from Massachusetts, leads Bush by 2
percentage points in a
George Washington University poll and by 1 point in a Fox News survey. An
Investor's
Business Daily poll shows the candidates even, while Bush leads in polls
by the Los
Angeles Times and the Gallup Organization. All results are within the
surveys' margins for
error.
``With 10 weeks remaining in the 2004 presidential election, the campaign
remains an
extremely tight and polarized race,'' said Republican pollster Eddie
Goeas, who conducted
the survey for George Washington University with Democratic pollster
Celinda Lake.
Kerry leads Bush 49 percent to 47 percent in the Washington- based
university's poll,
while independent candidate Ralph Nader is backed by 1 percent. Twelve
percent are
undecided.
Bush, 58, has made the war in Iraq and the economy the cornerstones of his
campaign, and
the survey indicates he could be challenged by voters on both issues.
Fifty-four percent
said ``things in this country are on the wrong track,'' while 39 percent
believe things
are going in the ``right direction.''
Swift Boat Ads
In past elections, incumbents have lost when more than 50 percent of those
surveyed think
the nation is heading in the wrong direction. That may not be the case
with Bush, Goeas
said, because 10 to 12 percent of those who believe the nation is on the
wrong track still
support Bush's re-election. ``That number isn't as bad for him as it might
appear,'' he
said.
The survey, which has a margin of error of 3.1 percent, found that 84
percent of those
questioned have already made up their minds on how they will vote.
The nationwide telephone poll of 1,000 registered voters who said they are
likely to vote
on Nov. 2 was conducted 10 days after Swift Boat Veterans for Truth, a
group funded by
friends and financial backers of Bush, began running televised and
Internet advertisements
-- refuted by U.S. Navy records -- accusing Kerry of lying about his
Vietnam war record.
The group has aired two ads. The first, which ran in so- called
battleground states Ohio,
Wisconsin and West Virginia, says Kerry, 60, didn't deserve the medals he
won in Vietnam.
The second attacks his 1971 anti-war testimony before the Senate Foreign
Relations
Committee. The poll didn't specifically address the Swift boat ads.
Gallup Poll
Bush drew support from 48 percent of the 709 likely voters polled
nationwide Aug. 23-25 by
Cable News Network/USA Today/Gallup. Kerry was supported by 46 percent and
Nader 4
percent. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. In an Aug. 9- 11
survey, Bush had 48
percent to Kerry's 46 percent and Nader's 3 percent.
The Gallup survey found that 81 percent of those polled had seen the Swift
boat group's
ads or were familiar with the commercials' content. ``It doesn't seem like
it had any
effect on the ballot question,'' Jeff Jones, managing editor of the Gallup
poll, said in
an interview. That ``isn't because people aren't aware of what's going
on,'' he said.
The ads may have affected some of Kerry's personal ratings, Jones said.
The Gallup poll
found that 34 percent consider Kerry a ``strong and decisive leader,''
down from 42
percent in a July 30- Aug. 1 survey. Bush's rating on that question rose
to 54 percent
from 52 percent.
Los Angeles Times
A Los Angeles Times poll gives Bush a lead over Kerry of 47 percent to 44
percent, with
Nader backed by 3 percent. The poll has a 3 percentage point margin for
error. Kerry led
Bush by 2 percentage points last month.
By a margin of 46 percent to 39 percent those surveyed by the Times prefer
Bush to Kerry
when asked who ``has the honesty and integrity to serve as president.''
Last month, before
the Swift Boat Veterans' adds starting running, the two candidates were
tied at 42
percent.
The survey of 1,597 adults, including 1,352 registered voters, was
conducted nationwide
from Saturday to Tuesday.
More than two-thirds of those responding, 68 percent, said they had seen
or heard of the
Swift boat group's first ad. Sixty- one percent said they had seen or
heard of its second
ad.
Eighteen percent of those polled said Kerry had misrepresented his war
record, while 58
percent said Kerry had fought ``honorably'' and deserves the medals he
won. Half of
Republicans polled said they believe Kerry lied about his war record,
while Democrats said
10 to 1 that Kerry served honorably.
Annenberg Findings
A poll by the Philadelphia-based Annenberg Public Policy Center of the
University of
Pennsylvania showed the controversy surrounding Kerry's military service
in Vietnam may
have wiped out some gains he had made among veterans.
The percentage of veterans who said Kerry was a stronger leader than Bush
dipped to 33
percent during the survey conducted Aug. 6 to 24, after it rose 4
percentage points to 37
percent around the time of the Democratic National Convention in Boston
from July 26
through July 29.
Bush, who served at home in the National Guard during the Vietnam War, was
rated the
stronger leader by 56 percent of veterans, up from 43 percent in a poll
conducted July
26-Aug. 5.
In addition, the percentage of veterans who said Kerry shared their values
more than Bush,
which had risen from 35 percent to 45 percent after the convention,
dropped to 38 percent.
The percentage preferring Bush, which dropped from 52 percent to 42
percent after the
convention, increased to 49 percent.
Disputed Incident
``The impact on Kerry of the advertisements and the coverage has been it
changes the
dialog away from what he'd like to be talking about and like to be covered
talking
about,'' said Adam Clymer, Annenberg Center political director.
Annenberg surveyed 13,603 adults during the three periods, including 1,761
military
veterans. The survey had a margin of error of 4 percentage points for the
July and August
periods, and 5 percentage points for the July 26-Aug. 5 poll.
A Navy report filed five days after one of disputed incidents cited by the
veterans group
supports Kerry, contradicting claims that he never came under gunfire when
he won two
medals. The report by the Navy task force overseeing Kerry's squadron said
his group of
boats was fired on in the March 13, 1969, mission, the Associated Press
reported earlier
this week.
Benjamin Ginsberg, an outside attorney for Bush's campaign, resigned
yesterday after
disclosing he had advised the Swift Boat Veterans. Ginsberg, 53, an
attorney for the
Washington firm of Patton LLP, said in a letter released by the Bush
campaign that his
work was ``entirely within the boundaries of the law.''
Fox News
Seven of the 10 supporters of the veterans group listed with the Internal
Revenue Service
are Republicans, according to PolicalMoneyLine. Among them is Bob Perry,
the largest
political donor to Republicans in Texas.
Bush political adviser Karl Rove told Fox News yesterday that Perry has
been a ``good
friend'' of his for 25 years, though the hadn't had an ``extended
conversation'' in years.
``No one in the Bush campaign has coordinated with Swift Boat Veterans,''
Rove told Fox.
A Fox News poll found Kerry leading Bush by 1 percentage point among
likely voters. In a
three-way race that includes the independent Nader, Kerry would get 44
percent of the
vote, Bush 43 percent and Nader 3 percent, the August 24-25 telephone poll
of 1,000 likely
voters shows. In a two-way race, Kerry leads Bush 45 percent to 44
percent.
In a similar Fox News poll three weeks ago, the Democratic nominee had a
5-point advantage
over the president.
The poll found that 55 percent of likely voters approve of the job Bush is
doing, while 44
percent disapprove, up from a 47 percent approval rating and a 45 percent
disapproval
rating three weeks ago.
Investor's Business
Kerry's approval rating was at 48 percent, a drop from 52 percent in the
Aug. 3-4 Fox News
poll.
A survey by Investor's Business Daily also found that Bush and Kerry are
tied. In a
three-way race including Nader, Bush and Kerry would each get 43 percent
of the vote if
the election were held today, the newspaper reported. Nader, 70, would get
5 percent. Bush
and Kerry are tied at 44 percent in a two-way race, the newspaper said.
The survey was conducted Aug. 17-23 as the Swift boat group's ads garnered
media
attention. In the previous Investor's Business Daily poll on Aug. 2-5,
Kerry led Bush by 3
percentage points in a three-way race and by 6 points in a two-way race,
the paper said.
U.S. presidential elections are decided by the Electoral College, which
consists of a
minimum of three electors from each state, based on the number of
representatives in
Congress. Those Electoral College totals also are based on population; 270
electoral votes
are needed to win the White House.
A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg
News shows Bush
ahead in 19 states, including Texas and Idaho, with 153 electoral votes.
Kerry leads in 12
states, including New York and New Jersey, with 179 electoral votes. In 19
states that
have 206 electoral votes, including Ohio and Wisconsin, the most recent
polling results
are within the margin of error.
To contact the reporter on this story:
Jesse Westbrook in Washington at jwestbrook1@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
contact the editor responsible for this story:
Glenn Holdcraft at gholdcraft@[EMAIL PROTECTED]
|
