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Iowa By the Numbers - Rolling Stone
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Rolling Stone - Jan 4, 2008
http://www.rollingstone.com/nationalaffairs/index.php/2008/01/04/iowa-by-the-numbers/
National Affairs Daily
Edited by Tim Dickinson
Iowa By the Numbers
Four statistics blew me away tonight:
1. Obama beat Hillary among women voters 35 to 30 percent.
2. Amid record Democratic turnout, as many people under 30 showed up
to caucus as those over 65.
3. Sixty percent of the GOP electorate in Iowa were born-again
Christians.
4. Rudy Giuliani finished with a mere 4,013 votes, in sixth place, with
less than half of the sup****t of Ron Paul.
Taking them in order:
One:
Hillary lost tonight to Barack Obama by 8 points a margin just as wide
as Mitt Romney catastrophic shortfall against Mike Huckabee.
And Obama beat her eight ways to Sunday. He edged her out among
Democrats 32/31, and cleaned her clock among independents (44/17) and
wayward Republicans (41/10). He beat her among people making less than
$15,000 (37/30) and more than $100,000 (41/19). He beat her among
health-care voters (34/30) and suburban voters (30/25).
Most astounding however, he beat her among her core sup****ters, women,
by five points. What more can I say than in a night of mind boggling
statistics that thats the stat of the night.
A black man did this. In a state thats 96 percent white. This is truly a
historic night in America.
Two:
The turnout on the Democratic side was unreal. It soared from 124,000 in
2004 to 230,000 in 2008. And thats all about the man who won.
Obamas been drawing record crowds from San Francisco to Des Moines but
there was always the question of whether he could produce a similar
effect among real live voters.
He did so in a way that no one predicted. 57 percent of the caucus goers
tonight had never caucused before. Most impressive: As many people under
thirty showed up as senior citizens.
Thats ****ing nuts is what that is. Thats the Rock the Vote political
wet dream that never ever comes true actually coming true.
What this ****tends for Obama as a national candidate is something truly
special. Hes not only proven that he can draw the sup****t of
independents and open-minded Republicans. Hes the one guy who can make
the Democratic pie higher, bringing new, unlikely voters into the fold.
If he could replicate this kind of sup****t among young people in a
general election, its game over.
Three:
The Religious Right has found their candidate. The evangelical vote in
the Republican caucus is usually 40 percent. Tonight it was 60 percent.
I give Mike Huckabee a lot of credit. Hes run the kind of grassroots
campaign thats not supposed to be possible in this era. Outspent 15:1,
his earthy, inclusive plain-spoken authenticity won hearts and minds
and his faith-based network of sup****ters turned out in droves, beating
back the best organization money can buy.
With Romney effectively out of the way, Im not sure anybody else can
stop this guy. Certainly not in South Carolina, where, if the churched
vote behaves the way they did tonight, hell clobber a John McCain, no
matter what happens in New Hamp****re.
Four:
Rudy Giluliani is done. His slot the maverick warmonger is going to be
filled by John McCain by the time Florida comes around. Hes executing
the most amazingly misguided electoral strategy I can remember. Bravo
and good riddance.
Closing thoughts
Obama scored two huge victories tonight. He not only popped Clintons
aura of inevitability, he also beat Edwards roundly enough to establish
himself as the only true anti-Clinton. So not only is Clinton wounded
heading into New Hamp****re, but the ABC (anyone but Clinton) vote has
found its standard bearer and his name isnt John Edwards.
Which is all to say that even if Clinton makes a miraculous recovery in
the next five days, I think enough of Edwards vote is going to migrate
to Obama that its not going to make a difference. New Hamp****re is his
to lose.
And fond goodbyes
Part of me, here, is going to miss the grand patrician stylings of Chris
Dodd, here.
And Joe Biden, I think Ill miss you most of all.
*
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